A World Without Bookstores?

Here's a scary thought for authors and readers alike.  What if there were no more bookstores?

If you don't think that could ever happen, think back on a few names from the past:  Musicland.  Wherehouse.  Tower.  Virgin.  These were all huge music superstores, and with few exceptions, they're long gone.  The concept of a music-only store has all but disappeared from retail.  If consumers want music, they go to places like Best Buy, Target, or Wal-Mart, or to online sources like Amazon and iTunes.

It's not hard to imagine bookstores going the same way.  Hundreds of wonderful independent bookstores have shut their doors in the past decade.  Mall favorites like Waldenbooks and B.Dalton have largely given way to Barnes & Noble and Borders -- and those chains now struggle with flat or declining sales.  In another decade, readers -- like music lovers -- may find themselves restricted to small selections at big box retailers or wind up doing their shopping online.

Is that a problem?  After all, musicians haven't disappeared, despite the evolving retail environment.  But I do think it's a worrisome trend for writers and readers.  First, large retailers don't devote much real estate to books, so their selection is extremely limited.  If your name isn't James Patterson or Nora Roberts, you may never wind up on their shelves, which means readers will find it harder to browse and discover new writers.  Second, musicians have additional channels for reaching an audience that authors don't enjoy.  Newspapers and magazines still devote ample page space to music.  Concerts and merchandise are still big business -- and big sources of publicity and revenue.  Songs are easy to spread virally through iTunes and YouTube, unlike books, which require a much larger bloc of time to enjoy.  You could "find" Susan Boyle, for example, with a three-minute performance online that attracted millions of viewers in a few days.  Books don't generally work that way.

Authors and publishers already face turbulent economic times.  Readers don't generally stop reading in a recession -- but their behavior changes in ways that mean authors derive little or no compensation from the people who enjoy their boks.  If 50 readers buy a new hardcover, for example, the total compensation to the author is approximately $125.  If 50 readers buy a new paperback, the compensation drops to about $35.  If 50 readers check out the book from the library, the compensation drops to about $2.50.  If 50 readers go to used book stores like eBay, the compensation drops to zero.  It's easy to do the math.

The trend suggests an uncertain future in the book biz.  For those of us who love books, we need to pay close attention to the next steps in how books are bought and sold.  How will e-books change the equation, for example?  Will other retailers pick up the slack if traditional retailers disappear?  Will independent sellers make a comeback?  I don't have the answers, but one thing is true:  The industry will look very different ten years from now than it does today.  The question is whether authors and readers will like what they see.

Comments

[Fernando]

I bought Stripped from a Supermarket and I really hope it´ll generate a compensation to the author :-)
I love books and also enjoy it in my hands while turning the pages or admire the cover, the back, and the fact that I could ge it autographed by the author.
E-books may be a great idea, that goes side by side with tecnological evolution, but a real book, with it´s covers, the smell of paper, the sound of pages being turned is priceless. If in the future those books are going to be rare items, we better start buying as many books as we can, because I really hate to read online.
Good post Brian, and I hope books stores can survive the future.

[Joan K. Maze]

I wish I didn't think you were right. While I've bought books from Barnes & Noble online, there's nothing better than going into a B&N store, getting a special coffee, and sitting down to read. I've read some ebooks, and while my own recently published books are ebooks, I have to admit I like a "real" book best. It just doesn't seem the same to curl up with an ebook reader.

Because of your post, I've made a decision. I will try to buy my books from bookstores. I could always consider it as inspiration.

Joan K. Maze

[Dru]

Great post and I'm afraid there won't be any retailers. I still from the old school - I like to read my book in my hands while I turn the pages. I like to admire the cover while it is sitting on my table and/or book shelves.

I sampled a kindle the other day and nah, I don't like it where I HAVE to buy my books from one source. I don't like that I can't get it autographed by the author.

I truly hope that book stores stay around. You do have a good thought - if the book retailers leave, I do believe the independent book stores will make a comeback.